Too Few Jobs

Total employment is projected to grow from 153.5 million to 165.4 million over the
2020–30 decade, an increase of 11.9 million jobs, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm

Think about that.

11.9 million jobs divided by ten years is 1,190,000 jobs per year.

That means that we create a little over 1 million jobs per year.

And we import close to 4 million guest workers each year as you can see in table 1.

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2022-01/21_1004_plcy_nonimmigrant_fy2020.pdf

Are you beginning to understand why more and more Americans are finding it harder and harder to find good paying work using our skills that we spent decades acquiring that our employers say they can’t find?

Now many of you will say there are plenty of jobs out there.

As a matter of fact, the United States Department of Labor would have you believe there are over 11 million jobs out there that our employers can’t fill.

The number of job openings was at a series high of 11.5 million on the last business day of March,
although little changed over the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires, at 6.7
million, were also little changed while total separations edged up to 6.3 million. Within separations,
quits edged up to a series high of 4.5 million, while layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.4
million. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations
for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, by four geographic regions, and by establishment size class.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

 

And if you look around your community, there are a lot of low paying restaurant and convenience store type jobs available.

Before we answer that question, lets look at the accuracy of the three different employed tracking programs that the Department of Labor maintains.

OES

May 2021

May 2011

You can find both of those via the following link.

https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm

If we subtract 128,278,550 from 140,886,310 we get 12,607,760 jobs gained during that 10 year period.

This works out to 1,260,776 jobs created per year.

CPS

The latest number we have in April of 2022 was 157,991,000, so lets use April of 2012 which would be 141,995,000 to give us a similar 10 year period.

This is a gain of 15,996,000 jobs or 1,599,600 jobs created per year.

You can retrieve that data via the following link.

https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm

CES

The latest number we have is April 2022 which was 151,314,000, so lets use April 2012 which was 133,834,000 to give us a similar 10 year period.

This is a gain of 17,480,000 jobs or 1,748,000 jobs per year.

You can retrieve that data via the following link.

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ce

Summary

According to OES we have created 1,260,776 jobs per year.

According to CPS we have created 1,599,600 jobs per year.

According to CES we have created 1,748,000 jobs per year.

Which one is accurate?

I believe the best answer would be to look at the 1040 based employees according to the IRS because they actually have to file a tax return.

2021

2011

You can retrieve that data via the following link.

https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-numbers-of-returns-filed-by-type-of-return-irs-data-book-table-2

The latest number we have is 2021 which was 167,915,264, and in 2011 we had 143,608,000.

This is a gain of 24,307,264 jobs or 2,430,726 jobs per year.

If this is accurate, the three methods the department of labor uses (OES, CPS, CES) were all lower by at least a million jobs per year.

Are you beginning to understand why I question the accuracy of the JOLTS report that says there are 11 million jobs open?

As an example, how many of them are duplicates.

Jobs Left for Americans